10 Examples Of Optimism Bias (or maybe of something else)

I was writing a post about Optimism bias and Pessimism bias for today and I got lost in definitions. I resized I have don’t have a good enough understanding of either to properly communicate my thought on the matter and instead resort to long words and vague sentences.
As such, in order to organize my thoughts on the matter and to provide you with content at least close to what I promised I’m writing this. (sorry for the rambling it’s already very late here)
I’m including the Valence effect as a part of Optimism bias for those of you who know what is it but enough of this, On To The List.

  1. “I won’t get in a car accident, I’m a good driver” – a possible assumption is that only bad drivers get into car accidents but the optimism bias remains.
  2. “On average it takes 8 years to complete a project of this caliber, but we know what we’re doing and we have it all planned out it will only take us 2” – Most people who start this project know what they are doing what else can get in your way?
  3. “It wouldn’t happen here, we have a good community” – We make assumptions about things that happen elsewhere.
  4. “Psh, it will be easy my whole life has been building up to this” – We see ourselves as full of life experience, we don’t have the processing power to fully process all people as complete individuals, and so often we don’t.
  5. “I won’t crash I know what I’m doing” – The illusion of control overlaps with optimism bias. I’m not sure if it is a cause, an effect, or neither.
  6. “What are the chances that I’ll get skin cancer? why should I worry about sunscreen” – when a single action has effects only when repeated we often see the result and take it for granted. This also applied when we are jealous of someone’s physique and claim it’s their genes (sometimes it is) but that is getting out of the realm of optimism.
  7. “Of course my perspective is valuable I’ve already written 190 something posts” – we often overvalue our effort…
  8. ” well the average success rate for college students is 10% but we all know I’m far from average” – Not in any way that is relevant to the task at hand.
  9. “It will only take a few months to get the product made and shipped out I’m an expert when it comes to design” – What about regulation on production shipping laws taxes, the changing price of materials? We often miss stuff that is outside our field of expertise.
  10. People buy lottery tickets – Even if distant the reward overwhelms the cost, we have trouble perceiving small odds and tend to round them up into something we can comprehend. (so much more I could do here but alas I am out of time)

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